New research from Texas highlights the correlation between data center growth and rising pollution levels.
A rapid expansion of data centers in Texas could restore air pollution to levels unseen since the early 2000s. Texas has emerged as a primary hub for the physical infrastructure powering generative AI.
These facilities require massive electricity consumption, and the method of power generation—whether through gas turbines or renewable sources—will dictate the environmental impact. Unfortunately, current trends suggest a grim outcome.
While tech giants are exploring independent power generation, a report from the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) indicates that if current projects connect to the Texas grid using the standard energy mix, pollutants would increase significantly. Fine particle pollution could triple within five years, erasing decades of air quality improvements.
John Hall, CEO of HARC, warned, "There is a good chance that our children and grandchildren will breathe dirtier air than we did."
This scenario would result in fine particle pollution tripling, NOx emissions jumping 136 percent, and carbon dioxide levels rising 90 percent compared to 2025 projections.
However, the outcome is not guaranteed. HARC modeled various scenarios based on energy demand projections. Many proposed projects are speculative, and developers can mitigate pollution by incorporating onsite solar and wind farms.
Pairing grid power with onsite generation could reduce NOx emissions by up to 10 times. Conversely, relying on onsite gas engines to bypass grid delays could lead to the highest pollution levels possible.
Texas currently leads the global data center market with 26 gigawatts of capacity, and Wood Mackenzie reports suggest it is preparing for four times more onsite power generation capacity than any other state. Unfortunately, developers are increasingly utilizing less efficient gas turbines to expedite construction, contributing to a more polluting boom.
Reiterating the urgency, John Hall emphasized, "The transportation sector, the state, and other stakeholders have been working for decades to successfully bring these numbers down, and that progress is now at risk."
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